The Indian stock market this week did something it had not done since early August: it closed higher than the week before. The Nifty 50 ended Friday, 9 October 2026, at 22,520.45, up 0.44%. That small gain ended eight weekly falls in a row.
It was not a quiet week. On Wednesday the Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate for the first time in more than three years. On Thursday the Nifty closed at its lowest level of 2026. On Friday it won most of that back. One thing ran through all three days: the price of oil, and the conflict in West Asia that sets it.
Here is the week in order: Indian shares first, then the US, then the news that moved both, and the dates to know for next week.
Indian markets: a small gain after eight weeks of falls
The headline indices rose. The broader market barely moved.
Indian indices, week ending 9 October 2026
Week = close of 1 October to close of 9 October (2 October was a market holiday). Source: NSE, BSE
| Index | Close, 9 Oct | Week | 2026 so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,520.45 | +0.44% | -13.81% |
| Sensex | 72,472.33 | +0.78% | -14.96% |
| Nifty Bank | 55,256.65 | +1.48% | -7.26% |
| Nifty Midcap 100 | 58,787.30 | +0.09% | -2.81% |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 | 19,153.70 | +0.50% | +8.13% |
The chart below is the whole year in one line: a high on 2 January, a low at the end of March, a recovery into August, and then the slide that took the index to a new low this Thursday.
The Nifty 50 touched its lowest close of 2026 on Thursday, then recovered on Friday
Nifty 50, daily close, 2026
Data source: NSE daily index closing files, 1 January to 9 October 2026.
The week, day by day
- Monday 5 October: 22,555.75, up 0.60%.
- Tuesday 6 October: 22,776.10, up 0.98%.
- Wednesday 7 October: 22,603.05, down 0.76%. The RBI raised the repo rate.
- Thursday 8 October: 22,231.80, down 1.64%. The lowest close of 2026, on a day oil jumped on reports of possible US strikes on Iran.
- Friday 9 October: 22,520.45, up 1.30%. Oil eased, and the Nifty IT index rose 3.02% a day after TCS opened the results season.
Banks and consumer goods rose, realty and metals fell
Seven of these twelve NSE indices ended the week higher
Change from the close of 1 October to the close of 9 October 2026
Data source: NSE daily index closing files.
Nifty FMCG (+2.45%) and Nifty PSU Bank (+2.38%) led. Nifty Realty (-3.72%), Nifty Metal (-3.69%) and Nifty Auto (-2.07%) fell the most.
The RBI raises the repo rate to 5.50%
On Wednesday 7 October the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to raise the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.25% to 5.50%. It also moved its stance to calibrated tightening; two members preferred to stay neutral. The reasons it gave:
- Inflation. CPI inflation rose to 4.8% in August. The RBI now projects 5.2% for 2026-27, with 6.0% in the October to December quarter.
- Oil. Sharp swings in crude prices after the West Asia conflict re-escalated in September.
- Growth. Projected at 7.1% for 2026-27.
For a household the direct link is the loan: floating-rate home loans tied to the repo rate usually reprice at their next reset date. In the bond market, the government sold its 2041 bond at Friday's auction at a yield of 7.49%. The next policy meeting is on 2 to 4 December.
US markets: record highs, with interest rates above 5%
Wall Street had a better week, and is having a very different year.
- S&P 500: 7,811.54, up 1.15% in the week. Tuesday's close of 7,818.93 was a record.
- Nasdaq Composite: 27,366.17, up 0.64%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,654.95, up 0.93%.
Same year, two directions: the S&P 500 is up 14%, the Nifty 50 is down 14%
Weekly close, both set to 100 on 31 December 2025
Data source: NSE; S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
The US 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 5.24%. It was 5.31% on Monday, its highest close of 2026, against 4.18% at the end of 2025 (US Treasury).
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate in September to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and the minutes of that meeting came out on Wednesday. It meets next on 27 and 28 October. US jobs data for September showed 29,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.2% (Bureau of Labor Statistics). The Fed's broad dollar index stood at 121.38 on 2 October, its latest reading, up 1.4% in 2026.
Why this matters at home: when US government bonds pay more than 5%, global funds have less reason to hold emerging-market shares. The RBI says foreign portfolio investors took a net $10.3 billion out of India between 1 April and 5 October.
The news that moved both: Iran, oil and the rupee
Almost every move this week traces back to West Asia.
- Thursday 8 October. Reports that Washington was weighing strikes on Iran pushed Brent futures up more than 4%, above $104 a barrel. In India the Nifty fell to its low of the year, and foreign investors sold ₹12,944 crore of shares in one day.
- Later on Thursday. President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections of 3 November, that talks with Tehran were under way, and that the naval blockade would stay. Oil eased.
- Friday 9 October. Mr Trump said Russia would supply diesel to the US and world markets, starting with more than 300,000 tonnes. The US Treasury issued a temporary licence to allow it.
Oil: about twice the price it started the year
Brent crude has roughly doubled in 2026
Brent spot price, US dollars a barrel, daily
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Latest published figure: 6 October 2026.
Brent spot, the price of physical barrels, was $125.44 on 6 October, the latest figure from the US Energy Information Administration. It ended 2025 at $61.35. Brent futures, the price most headlines quote, are lower: about $103 to $105 on Friday.
India buys most of its crude from abroad, so this is the number behind the rupee, inflation and the RBI's decision. The RBI puts the average price of India's crude basket at $82.0 in July, $90.2 in August and $116.1 in September.
The rupee: near 97 to the dollar, and the RBI steps in
From 90 to 96 rupees a dollar in nine months
FBIL reference rate, daily, 2026
Data source: FBIL (Financial Benchmarks India). Latest published rate: 1 October 2026.
The FBIL reference rate was 89.92 at the end of 2025 and 95.99 on 1 October, the latest published. This week the rupee closed at 96.88 on Thursday and 96.71 on Friday in the interbank market (PTI).
On Saturday 10 October the RBI announced two steps:
- A dollar window for oil companies. From Monday 12 October it will sell dollars directly to the three public-sector oil marketing companies for their entire daily need, until further notice.
- Tighter rules for rupee currency derivatives. Cancelled contracts cannot be rebooked. The limit for hedging without showing the underlying exposure drops from $100 million to $5 million. Banks must keep a 20% cash reserve with the RBI against contracts above $2 million in which a client buys foreign currency for current-account payments such as imports.
India's foreign exchange reserves were $734.6 billion on 2 October, down $12.95 billion in a week (RBI).
Foreign investors sold, domestic institutions bought
FIIs sold on all five days; DIIs bought on all five
Net buying in the cash market, ₹ crore, 5 to 9 October 2026
Data source: NSE, provisional daily figures.
Over five sessions FIIs sold a net ₹30,294 crore and DIIs bought a net ₹30,313 crore. Domestic institutions include the mutual funds that invest households' monthly SIPs. In a week when foreign money left, Indian savings took the other side almost rupee for rupee.
If you want to see what a monthly SIP adds up to over the years, our SIP calculator shows the arithmetic, and our mutual funds page explains how we build a plan.
Gold, for the record: ₹1,49,614 per 10 grams of 999 purity on Friday morning (IBJA, before GST).
What is coming: the week of 12 October
No predictions. For each date: what it is, why it matters for Indian markets, and what it means for someone investing from India.
Calendar, 12 to 17 October 2026
Dates as published by each source on 11 October 2026; they can change
| Day | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 Oct | India CPI inflation for September | MoSPI |
| Mon 12 Oct | RBI dollar window for oil companies opens | RBI |
| Mon 12 Oct | IMF and World Bank annual meetings begin in Bangkok (to 18 Oct) | IMF |
| Mon 12 Oct | HCLTech second-quarter results | BSE |
| Tue 13 Oct | Nifty 50 weekly options expiry | NSE |
| Tue 13 Oct | US bank results begin (JPMorgan Chase) | Company notice |
| Wed 14 Oct | India WPI inflation for September | Office of the Economic Adviser |
| Wed 14 Oct | US CPI inflation for September, 6:00 pm IST | BLS |
| Thu 15 Oct | Wipro second-quarter results; Sensex weekly options expiry | BSE |
| Fri 16 Oct | RBI weekly foreign exchange reserves data | RBI |
| Sat 17 Oct | HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank second-quarter results | BSE |
What each date means for Indian markets and investors
- India CPI inflation, Monday; WPI inflation, Wednesday. The RBI has said rate cuts are off the table and that its next step, a pause or another rise, depends on the data. This is that data. August CPI was 4.8%, the RBI expects 6.0% for October to December, and food is the worry after a weak monsoon. A reading above that path points to rates staying high for longer; a softer one takes pressure off bond yields and loan rates. For you: floating-rate home loan EMIs and new fixed deposit rates follow the repo rate at their next reset. Debt funds move the opposite way to yields: as a rule of thumb, a fund with a duration of four years moves about 1% for every quarter-point change.
- The RBI's dollar window for oil companies, from Monday; reserves data, Friday. The three public-sector oil companies are the largest daily buyers of dollars in India. From Monday the RBI sells to them directly, which takes that demand out of the market and is meant to steady a rupee that closed the week at 96.71. The pressure does not vanish; it moves to the RBI's reserves, which fell $12.95 billion the week before. So Friday's reserves figure, more than the exchange rate, shows what the defence is costing. For you: a steadier rupee is one of the first things foreign investors look for before they return. A weaker one makes fuel, foreign education and travel dearer, and lifts the rupee value of US stocks and international funds you already hold.
- HCLTech on Monday, Wipro on Thursday. The Nifty IT index rose 3.02% on Friday after TCS opened the results season. These two show whether that was one company or the sector. IT results carry two readings at once: how much American and European clients are spending, and how much a rupee near 97 adds to earnings made in dollars. For you: almost every diversified equity fund holds large IT companies, so these results reach most SIP portfolios through the fund, not through a single share.
- US bank results from Tuesday; US inflation on Wednesday, 6:00 pm IST. The Fed raised its rate in September and meets again on 27 and 28 October; this inflation number feeds that decision. It matters here because the US 10-year government bond already pays 5.24%. The more it pays, the less reason global funds have to hold Indian shares: foreign investors sold ₹30,294 crore of them this week. The number lands after Indian markets close, so the reaction here comes on Thursday morning. For you: US stocks and international funds respond directly. Indian equity funds respond through foreign flows and the rupee.
- Nifty 50 expiry on Tuesday, Sensex expiry on Thursday. Weekly options contracts are settled on these days, and the heaviest index shares often swing more than usual in the last hour as positions are closed. For you: this matters to derivatives traders. It says nothing about what a company is worth, and it does not change a monthly SIP.
- IMF and World Bank meetings, 12 to 18 October. The IMF usually publishes its World Economic Outlook at these meetings, with a growth forecast for India to set beside the RBI's 7.1%. Global funds read those numbers, and what is said about oil, when they decide how much to keep in emerging markets. For you: a reading of how foreign investors see India, not a verdict on any one fund.
- HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, Saturday. The first large bank results since the repo rate went to 5.50%. Three things to read: whether lending margins widened as loan rates reset, how fast loans grew, and whether bad loans moved. Banks carry the largest weight in the Nifty 50, so they set the direction of the index. The results come with markets shut; prices react on Monday 19 October, a day before the Dussehra holiday. For you: large private banks are among the biggest holdings of most large-cap and flexi-cap funds.
What it adds up to for an Indian investor
The rate rise was last week's news. Next week brings the two tests that follow it: inflation on Monday and the first bank results on Saturday, with the rupee as the running score in between. If inflation stays near the RBI's path and the rupee holds, the pressure that made foreign investors sell can ease. If either slips, the rate-sensitive sectors feel it first. A monthly SIP buys through both: more units when prices are lower, fewer when they are higher.
Further out: Indian markets are closed on Tuesday 20 October for Dussehra, and a SIP due that day is processed on the next working day. The minutes of the RBI's meeting, due on 21 October, will show how firmly the committee backs calibrated tightening before it meets again on 2 to 4 December. The US votes on 3 November, the date President Trump tied his Iran decision to, so oil stays the number behind the rupee until then.
Coming mid-week: Indian markets in winter
Next from the Desk · Out mid-week
India spends the most in winter. The Nifty has fallen in four of the last five.
Diwali, the wedding season, full flights and full hotels, then the Union Budget. It feels like the season when share prices should rise. We went through every winter since 2022 to check.
- Five Januaries, five losses. The Nifty 50 has ended January lower in every year since 2022.
- A cold winter sold more creams and balms. The index of consumer goods companies still finished lower.
- One group of shares rose in four winters out of five. It was not consumer goods, travel or jewellery.
Which sectors, why it happens, and what it means for a monthly SIP. Indian markets in winter, out mid-week.
Questions readers ask
How did the Indian stock market do in the week ending 9 October 2026?
The Nifty 50 closed at 22,520.45, up 0.44% for the week, and the Sensex at 72,472.33, up 0.78%. It was the Nifty's first weekly gain after eight weekly falls. Nifty Bank rose 1.48%, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.09% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 0.50%.
Why did the RBI raise the repo rate in October 2026?
On 7 October 2026 the Monetary Policy Committee raised the repo rate from 5.25% to 5.50% by a unanimous vote. It pointed to CPI inflation rising to 4.8% in August, volatile crude oil prices after the West Asia conflict re-escalated in September, and its inflation projection of 5.2% for 2026-27.
Why is the Nifty 50 down in 2026 when the S&P 500 is up?
By 9 October 2026 the Nifty 50 was down 13.81% for the year and the S&P 500 was up 14.11%. India imports most of its crude oil, and the Brent spot price has roughly doubled in 2026. The rupee has moved from about 90 to about 97 per dollar, and the RBI reports net foreign portfolio outflows of $10.3 billion between 1 April and 5 October.
What are the key market dates in the week of 12 October 2026?
India's September CPI inflation on Monday 12 October, the number the RBI raised rates on, which matters most for banks, realty and autos; India's WPI inflation and US CPI inflation on Wednesday 14 October, which shapes how much foreign money stays in Indian shares; the IMF and World Bank annual meetings from 12 to 18 October; and second-quarter results from large IT companies and banks, the two sectors that reach most equity funds. Indian markets are closed on 20 October for Dussehra.
See how this year sits against your own plan
A market wrap tells you what happened. Your plan decides what it means for you. We can go through yours together.
Book a consultation →Reviewed by Nishith Gandhi, GVNG Financial · Published 11 October 2026 · Sources: NSE, BSE, RBI, MoSPI, FBIL, IBJA, US Treasury, Federal Reserve (FRED), US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Energy Information Administration, IMF, PTI. Every figure was checked against its source on 11 October 2026; figures marked provisional can be revised.
Disclaimer: Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. This article is market commentary for information and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, and it makes no forecast of prices. Companies are named only to report results dates; this is not a view on any stock. Past performance is not indicative of future results. GVNG Financial is an AMFI-registered mutual fund distributor and an authorised partner of Motilal Oswal.
A note from the founder
In a year like this, the plan matters more than the week.
If you invest every month, 2026 has asked a lot of you. The Nifty is below where it began the year, the rupee buys less abroad, and most headlines are about oil or war. It is natural to ask whether anything in your plan should change.
In shortIn the week to 9 October 2026 the Nifty 50 rose 0.44% to 22,520.45, its first weekly gain after eight falls, even as the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50%. Foreign investors sold ₹30,294 crore of Indian shares in five days, and domestic institutions bought ₹30,313 crore.
Bring me your plan and your questions, and we will go through it together, one line at a time.
Nishith Gandhi
Founder, GVNG Financial, Ahmedabad
25+ years serving families
Founder, GVNG Financial, Ahmedabad
25+ years serving families
