Indian stock market in winter: what November to February did to the Nifty and every sector since 2022

Five winters of NSE data, 36 years of the Sensex and the research on seasons and share prices. The season is busy for business. It has rarely been kind to the index.
GVNG Research14 October 2026 · 15 min read
Deep fresh snow on huts and pine trees below the Gulmarg gondola in Kashmir, under a clear sky
Photo: Skywayman9, CC BY-SA 3.0
Winter is when India spends: Diwali, weddings, the busiest months for flights and hotels, the wheat sowing, then the Union Budget on the first of February. If any season should be good for share prices, it feels like this one.
We checked: every NSE daily closing file since 2021, all 1,331 sessions, then 36 years of the Sensex and the research on seasons and share prices. Winter here means the last close of October to the last close of February. The Indian stock market in winter has not behaved the way the season feels.
The short answer

From November to February the Nifty 50 fell in four of the last five winters. It rose only in 2023-24, by 15.22%. Since 2006, January and February are the only months in which the Sensex has fallen on average. No sector index rose in all five winters; government-owned companies came closest. Each sector typically did better in the four months before winter. What decided each winter was foreign money, the Budget, and one surprise nobody had in the calendar.

Markets in winter: five winters, one by one

Indian shares from November to February
Last October close to last February close. Source: NSE
WinterNifty 50Midcap 100Smallcap 100Strongest sector indexWeakest sector index
2021-22-4.97%-7.37%-8.57%Metal +5.99%Realty -12.49%
2022-23-3.93%-4.18%-5.48%PSU Bank +5.70%Energy -18.71%
2023-24+15.22%+24.33%+26.30%Realty +51.00%Media -6.78%
2024-25-8.60%-14.61%-20.98%Bank -6.08%Media -31.31%
2025-26-2.11%-1.19%-7.90%PSU Bank +19.99%Realty -17.62%
Three of the four losing winters were followed by eight months that made the money back, and more. Not this year: from the end of February to 9 October 2026 the Nifty 50 is down 10.56%.
Four of the last five winters ended lower for the Nifty 50
November to February, and the March to October that followed
Excel column chart of the Nifty 50. November to February: down 4.97% in 2021-22, down 3.93% in 2022-23, up 15.22% in 2023-24, down 8.60% in 2024-25 and down 2.11% in 2025-26. The March to October that followed: up 7.25%, up 10.26%, up 10.11%, up 16.26%, and down 10.56% to 9 October 2026.
Data source: NSE daily index closing files. Past returns do not tell you future returns.
One winter rose from start to finish. The other four gave way in January and February
Nifty 50, last October close = 100
Excel line chart of the Nifty 50 through five winters, each starting at 100 on the last October close. 2023-24 ends at 115.2. The other four end below 100: 2025-26 at 97.9, 2022-23 at 96.1, 2021-22 at 95.0 and 2024-25 at 91.4.
Data source: NSE daily index closing files.

2021-22: a new virus, then a war

The Nifty 50 fell 4.97%, and two days did most of it: the day the World Health Organization named the Omicron variant, and the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the overseas funds that buy and sell Indian shares, sold in all four months: ₹93,866 crore. Only Metal and Energy rose, as the war pushed commodity prices up.

2022-23: a record in December, a shock in January

The Nifty 50 closed at a record 18,812.50 on 1 December 2022 and still ended the winter 3.93% lower than it began. On 24 January 2023 the US firm Hindenburg Research published a report on the Adani group, whose companies sat in the energy indices. Nifty Energy fell 8.3% in January and 8.6% in February, and FPIs sold ₹28,852 crore in January.

2023-24: the winter that worked

The one winter that fits the story people tell. Three things lined up: four state election results on 3 December 2023, a signal ten days later that US interest rate rises were over, and FPI buying of ₹66,135 crore in December, the largest month in our five years. Realty rose 51.00%, CPSE (central government companies in power, oil, coal and defence) 48.78% and PSU Bank 40.44%.

2024-25: five falling months in a row

The Nifty 50 fell every month from October to February; five in a row had last happened in 1996. FPIs sold ₹1,18,767 crore, ₹78,027 crore of it in January 2025, and growth for July to September was first reported at a weak 5.4%. Good news did not help: the Budget removed income tax on incomes up to ₹12 lakh, and on 7 February the RBI cut its repo rate, the rate at which it lends to banks, for the first time in almost five years. The Nifty still fell 5.89% in February, to its season low of 22,124.70 on the last day.

2025-26: a record high, then the Budget and an AI scare

The Nifty 50 fell 2.11%, the mildest of the four losing winters. Until the new year most things went right: 8.2% growth for July to September, a repo rate cut to 5.25% on 5 December 2025, and on 2 January 2026 a close of 26,328.55, the Nifty's highest ever and not seen since. The rupee did fall past 90 to the dollar for the first time on 3 December. Then FPIs sold ₹35,962 crore in January, the Budget raised the securities transaction tax on futures and options, and in February fear that artificial-intelligence tools would take work from software services companies pulled Nifty IT down 19.5%.

What the five winters had in common

Foreign money set the direction

The one winter of heavy foreign buying, 2023-24, was the one strong winter. The two winters of heaviest selling, 2021-22 and 2024-25, brought the two largest falls.
Foreign investors were net sellers in three of the five winters
Net FPI investment in Indian equity, November to February
Excel column chart of net investment by foreign portfolio investors in Indian equity from November to February, in crore rupees: minus 93,866 in 2021-22, plus 13,212 in 2022-23, plus 50,931 in 2023-24, minus 1,18,767 in 2024-25 and minus 39,723 in 2025-26.
Data source: NSDL, monthly FPI net investment, equity.
FPIs were net sellers in every January from 2022 to 2026. Our reading, not a proven cause: global funds start their year on 1 January, when many reset how much they hold in each country.

January and February have been the weak months

The Nifty 50 fell in all of the last five Januaries and four of the last five Februaries. Since 2006 the Sensex has risen in only 8 of 21 Januaries and 8 of 21 Februaries. November and December have been ordinary; the damage has come after the new year.
Since 2006, January and February are the only months in which the Sensex has fallen on average
Sensex, average change by calendar month
Excel column chart of the average Sensex change in each calendar month from January 2006 to September 2026. January averaged minus 0.69% and February minus 1.41%, the only two months with a negative average. April averaged plus 3.55% and July plus 2.56%.
Data source: BSE, Sensex daily closes, January 2006 to September 2026. An average hides wide swings from year to year.

The Budget has been a risk more often than a rally

The Nifty 50 around the February Budget
Close-to-close changes. July 2024's full Budget is left out: it was not in winter. Source: NSE
BudgetJanuary before itBudget dayNext session
Tue 1 Feb 2022-0.08%+1.37%+1.16%
Wed 1 Feb 2023-2.45%-0.26%-0.03%
Thu 1 Feb 2024 (interim)-0.03%-0.13%+0.72%
Sat 1 Feb 2025-0.58%-0.11%-0.52%
Sun 1 Feb 2026-3.10%-1.96%+1.06%
Many investors wait for a "pre-Budget rally". The Nifty instead fell in the January before all five Budgets, and on Budget day in four. Tax rules for investors can change that day, as in 2026: a day to know about, not to bet on.

The big days were surprises

The days that moved these winters
Close-to-close change on the day. Source: NSE
DayWhat happenedMove
26 Nov 2021WHO names the Omicron variantNifty 50 -2.91%
24 Feb 2022Russia invades UkraineNifty 50 -4.78%, the worst day of the five winters. Nifty Bank -5.79%, Smallcap 100 -6.25%
27 Jan 2023Worry over government banks' loans to the Adani groupNifty PSU Bank -5.43%
4 Dec 2023First session after four state election resultsNifty 50 +2.07%, the best day of that winter
17 Jan 2024HDFC Bank's resultsNifty Bank -4.28%
23 Jan 2024Sony calls off its merger with ZeeNifty Media -12.87%
Sun 1 Feb 2026Budget raises the tax on futures and options tradesNifty 50 -1.96%, the largest Budget-day fall in six years
3 Feb 2026India-US trade agreementNifty 50 +2.55%, the best day of that winter
None of these is a seasonal event. Diwali, weddings and cold weather come on dates everyone knows, and share prices have already counted them.

Is there a winter effect? What the research says

A famous idea in finance says winter is the good half of the year for shares. It is why people expect winter to pay.
What the research found
Seven published studies
StudyLooked atFound
Bouman and Jacobsen, American Economic Review, 200237 countriesIn 36, shares earned more from November to April than from May to October: the "Halloween effect", or "sell in May"
Zhang and Jacobsen, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021Every stock market record the authors could find, some three centuries longNovember to April ahead by about 4 percentage points a year on average
Kamstra, Kramer and Levi, American Economic Review, 2003Day length and share pricesShort days make investors more cautious, the "winter blues". Stronger in countries far from the equator
Jacobsen and Marquering, Journal of Banking and Finance, 2008The weather explanationThe seasonal pattern is real in many countries, but the data cannot show that mood or temperature is the cause
Jaisinghani, South Asian Journal of Global Business Research, 201611 NSE indices, 1994 to 2014Halloween effect not statistically significant in India
Saxena, Purohit and Malhotra, Global Business and Economics Review, 2021Nifty 50, 2011 to 2018No month-of-the-year effect. India's calendar patterns are "diminishing"
Ghalke and others, IIMB Management Review, 2023The one-hour Muhurat session on Diwali eveningReturns higher than on other new-moon days, more so in small companies, where individual investors do more of the trading
Mumbai's shortest day is about eleven hours and London's under eight, so a short-day effect should be weak in India. The Muhurat finding is about one hour, not a season.

Our own test: 36 winters of the Sensex

The Sensex used to have strong winters. In the last twenty years the typical winter has been close to zero
Sensex, end of October to end of February, 1990-91 to 2025-26
Excel column chart of the Sensex from the end of October to the end of February in each of 36 winters from 1990-91 to 2025-26. It rose in 11 of the first 16 winters, including 59.68% in 1991-92 and 60.31% in 1993-94, and in 9 of the last 20, where the typical winter was close to zero.
Data source: BSE, 8,903 daily closes of the Sensex from January 1990. The winters of 1991-92 and 1993-94 each gained about 60%.
  • First 16 winters (1990-91 to 2005-06): the Sensex rose in 11. The typical (median) winter gained 15.5%.
  • Last 20 winters (2006-07 to 2025-26): it rose in 9. The typical winter fell 0.2%.
  • March to October, the same 20 years: it rose in 17.
  • The Halloween test, all 36 years: the average month gained 1.36% from November to April and 1.33% from May to October. No real difference, and a standard statistical test agrees.
India's winter effect belonged to the years after the economy opened up. A rule that works in 36 other countries has not worked here for twenty years.

Sectors in winter

Winter does change business: hotels fill up, jewellers sell more, cold cream moves off the shelves. The investor's question is whether the shares rose.
NSE sector indices, November to February
Last October close to last February close. Source: NSE
Index2021-222022-232023-242024-252025-26Winters up
Nifty CPSE+5.66%+2.89%+48.78%-18.36%+7.12%4 of 5
Nifty PSU Bank-5.58%+5.70%+40.44%-15.96%+19.99%3 of 5
Nifty Metal+5.99%-10.64%+22.77%-11.88%+15.35%3 of 5
Nifty Energy+4.20%-18.71%+45.00%-23.62%+2.12%3 of 5
Nifty Auto-4.22%-4.86%+28.25%-12.83%+5.03%2 of 5
Nifty Bank-7.44%-2.51%+7.64%-6.08%+4.76%2 of 5
Nifty IT-1.63%+3.26%+23.34%-7.65%-14.30%2 of 5
Nifty Pharma-6.86%-11.09%+29.42%-12.85%+3.50%2 of 5
Nifty FMCG-7.08%+1.45%+5.37%-14.38%-9.01%2 of 5
Nifty Infrastructure-4.88%-4.16%+32.65%-13.12%-0.35%1 of 5
Nifty Consumer Durables-1.73%-11.27%+14.20%-12.14%-2.67%1 of 5
Nifty Realty-12.49%-10.36%+51.00%-20.17%-17.62%1 of 5
Nifty Media-10.48%-17.34%-6.78%-31.31%-7.94%0 of 5
All but media rose in 2023-24, and all fell in 2024-25. The season of the market mattered more than the season of the sector.
Last winter: government banks and metals rose, IT and property fell
NSE indices, 31 October 2025 to 27 February 2026
Excel bar chart of NSE index changes from 31 October 2025 to 27 February 2026: Nifty PSU Bank up 19.99%, Metal up 15.35%, CPSE up 7.12%, Auto up 5.03%, Bank up 4.76%, Pharma up 3.50%, Energy up 2.12%; Infrastructure down 0.35%, Midcap 100 down 1.19%, Nifty 50 down 2.11%, Consumer Durables down 2.67%, Smallcap 100 down 7.90%, Media down 7.94%, FMCG down 9.01%, IT down 14.30% and Realty down 17.62%.
Data source: NSE daily index closing files.

Before winter and during winter

A sector's season starts early: Diwali and wedding dates are known months ahead, and investors buy before them. So we set July to October against winter. "Typical" is the middle value of the five years.
NSE indices before winter and during winter, 2021 to 2025
July to October = last June close to last October close. Last column: 30 June to 9 October 2026. Source: NSE
IndexJul to Oct: years upJul to Oct: typicalNov to Feb: years upNov to Feb: typicalJul to 9 Oct 2026
Nifty 504 of 5+0.8%1 of 5-3.9%-5.6%
Nifty Realty3 of 5+13.9%1 of 5-12.5%-3.1%
Nifty PSU Bank4 of 5+13.6%3 of 5+5.7%-4.3%
Nifty CPSE3 of 5+11.4%4 of 5+5.7%-10.4%
Nifty Media4 of 5+8.7%0 of 5-10.5%+5.1%
Nifty Metal4 of 5+6.7%3 of 5+6.0%-4.1%
Nifty Pharma4 of 5+6.7%2 of 5-6.9%+2.5%
Nifty Auto4 of 5+6.6%2 of 5-4.2%-6.1%
Nifty Energy3 of 5+6.2%3 of 5+2.1%-10.0%
Nifty Infrastructure4 of 5+6.2%1 of 5-4.2%-8.7%
Nifty FMCG4 of 5+4.3%2 of 5-7.1%-8.1%
Nifty IT4 of 5+3.5%2 of 5-1.6%+8.6%
Nifty Consumer Durables5 of 5+3.4%1 of 5-2.7%-1.3%
Nifty Bank3 of 5+0.8%2 of 5-2.5%-4.0%
For every sector index, the typical July to October was better than the typical winter
Typical change before winter and during winter, 2021 to 2025
Excel bar chart of NSE indices comparing the typical July to October with the typical November to February over five years. For the Nifty 50 and for every one of the 13 sector indices the typical July to October was the better of the two. Nifty Realty: plus 13.9% before winter, minus 12.5% during. Nifty Media: plus 8.7% before, minus 10.5% during. Nifty PSU Bank: plus 13.6% before, plus 5.7% during.
Data source: NSE daily index closing files.
  • The run-up was the stronger half. Across 13 sector indices and five years, 65 cases, the index rose in 49 run-ups and 26 winters.
  • A rise before winter did not secure one in winter. Of the 49 that rose before winter, 22 also rose in it. Of the 16 that fell, 4 did.
  • Leaders stayed ahead, often by falling less. In four of five years the four best sectors before winter beat the four worst during it, yet lost money on average in three of the five winters.
This year is different going in. In the last five years, 1, 0, 2, 8 and 5 of the 13 sector indices fell between July and October. So far in 2026 it is 10 of 13: only IT, Media and Pharma are higher.

Consumer goods: the winter shelf

The business. Chyawanprash, honey, cough syrups, cold creams and balms sell mainly in the cold, so October to December is the quarter that counts. Dabur blamed a late winter in the December quarters of 2023 and 2024, and Emami in 2024, when Dabur's revenue grew about 3% and its healthcare sales fell 1.3%. The winter of 2025-26 came in cold: Emami's domestic sales grew 11% and BoroPlus 16%.
The shares. Nifty FMCG still fell 9.01% that winter. On the night of 31 December 2025 the government announced a new excise duty on cigarettes, and ITC, the largest company in the index, fell 9.7% the next day and about 20% over January.

Travel: airlines and hotels

The business. October to March is the peak for travel. IndiGo, India's largest airline, made a December-quarter net profit of ₹1,422 crore in 2022, ₹2,998 crore in 2023 and ₹2,449 crore in 2024. In 2025 it made ₹550 crore, after cancelling thousands of flights in early December at a cost of about ₹577 crore and booking ₹969 crore for new labour rules.
The shares. The Nifty India Tourism index, which has two full winters of data, fell 2.17% in 2024-25 and 12.53% in 2025-26. The peak is in the timetable every year; what moved the shares was not.

Jewellery: strong before winter, weaker in it

The business. October to December is usually the jewellers' biggest quarter: Dhanteras and Diwali are among the heaviest gold-buying days, and many Hindu wedding dates fall between November and February. The traders' body CAIT estimated 38 lakh weddings and ₹4.74 lakh crore of spending for the season from November 2023, and 46 lakh weddings and ₹6.5 lakh crore for November and December 2025.
The shares. The NSE has no jewellery index, so we followed the middle one of the eight jewellers listed since before June 2021, which no single company can swing. It rose 19% to 32% before winter in each year from 2021 to 2024, and fell in four of the five winters, by 6% to 26%.
In four of the last five years jewellery shares rose before winter. In four of five they fell during it
The typical listed jeweller: July to October, then November to February
Excel column chart of the median share-price change of eight NSE-listed jewellery companies. July to October: up 19.0% in 2021, 21.0% in 2022, 23.9% in 2023, 32.0% in 2024 and down 1.1% in 2025. The November to February that followed: down 23.8%, down 6.4%, up 7.2%, down 25.6% and down 15.4%.
Data source: NSE closing prices of eight listed jewellery companies, adjusted for share splits. Not a recommendation on any share.
Gold did the opposite. A gold exchange-traded fund, which follows the rupee price of gold, rose in all five winters, by 1.4% to 31.6%. When gold is dear, customers buy fewer grams and more coins and bars, on which a jeweller earns little: in the quarter to March 2026 Titan's income rose 80% while its gross margin fell six percentage points.
Right now: a good run. Of the 13 jewellers now listed, 9 are above their 30 June price and the middle one is up 11.9%, while the Nifty 50 fell 5.64%. The spark was Kalyan Jewellers' 7 July update of about 38% revenue growth for April to June; its share rose 77% by 29 July. In early October Kalyan reported about 26% growth for July to September and Titan about 21% in jewellery; Titan added that some festive buying has moved to the December quarter, as Diwali is nearly three weeks later this year. The run is uneven: Titan is where it was in June. Such a run-up is the usual pattern; holding it through winter has been rare. That is the past, not a forecast: gold is now 16% below its peak of 29 January 2026, where in most of those winters it was rising.

Cars, two-wheelers and tractors

The business. Navratri to Diwali are the biggest selling weeks of the year. In the 42 festive days of 2025, just after GST on small cars and two-wheelers was cut, dealers sold a record 52.38 lakh vehicles, 21% more than a year earlier, says the dealers' federation FADA.
The shares. Nifty Auto rose 5.03% that winter, after falling in three of the previous four: a change in the rules, not the season.

IT services

The business. October to December is the slow quarter: US and European clients shut for the holidays and send contract staff on unpaid leave, called furloughs.
The shares. The index still rose 23.34% in 2023-24. It fell 12.5% in February 2025 on worries about US growth and tariffs, and 19.5% in February 2026, when a new AI tool from the US company Anthropic set off a worldwide sell-off in technology shares. Neither fall was about furloughs.

Banks

The business. Bankers call October to March the busy season: crops are bought, festivals financed, and companies borrow before the year ends. Cash also gets tight: advance tax in mid-December typically pulls more than ₹1 lakh crore out of the banking system. In January 2025 the shortfall passed ₹3 lakh crore, the deepest in about fifteen years, and on 27 January the RBI moved to put about ₹1.5 lakh crore back.
The shares. Nifty Bank rose in two of five winters and Nifty PSU Bank, the government-owned banks, in three: the best winter record among banks, and still not dependable.

Property, cement and construction

The business. Building picks up after the monsoon. Around Delhi, winter also brings smog and the pollution rules known as GRAP, whose strictest stage stops all construction, roads and flyovers included. It applied from 13 to 24 December 2025 and again from 17 January 2026. The consultancy Anarock estimates that a month's ban delays a project by three to four months.
The shares. Nifty Realty fell in four of five winters. But Delhi is one region; the index covers the country and moves mostly with interest rates and home sales. We cannot say the pattern has a seasonal cause.

Government companies, energy and the Budget

The business. The Budget sets central government spending on roads, railways, power and defence: ₹11.2 lakh crore for 2025-26, raised to ₹12.2 lakh crore for 2026-27. Many of the companies that carry it out are government-owned.
The shares. Nifty CPSE has the best record in our table: four winters of five. Nifty Energy shows how one event can swamp a season: its worst winter was that of the Adani report, its best the one after.

Media: a pattern without a reason

Nifty Media fell in all five winters, and we can find no seasonal reason. Each fall had its own cause: the Zee and Sony merger collapsing in January 2024, the broad fall in smaller companies in 2024-25. It can also be luck: a coin lands the same way five times running about once in sixteen tries, and we looked at thirteen indices.

The lesson: a busy season is not a rising share price

Share prices move when results differ from what was expected, not when business is good. Everyone expects full hotels in December, so full hotels change nothing. A late winter, cancelled flights, a tax announced on New Year's Eve: these move prices, because nobody had counted them. It is why seasonal patterns fade once they are widely known.

This winter: what is different in 2026-27

No forecasts here: only the conditions this winter starts with, and the dates in the diary.
Where this winter starts
Latest readings, early October 2026
MeasureReading
Nifty 5022,520.45 on 9 October, down 13.81% for the year. Last winter began less than 2% below the record close of the time
Foreign investorsSold ₹2.47 lakh crore of Indian shares between March and September
RBI repo rateRaised to 5.50% on 7 October
OilAbove $100 a barrel
RupeeNear 97 to the dollar
Monsoon 202612.6% below normal, the weakest since 2015 according to the weather office
Major reservoirsAbout 72% full in early October
El NiñoUS forecasters expect a very strong one to last through the winter
It starts from a low, not a high. El Niño, a warming of the Pacific that tends to weaken India's monsoon, matters twice. The wheat and mustard sown in November depend on stored water, and food prices feed the inflation the RBI watches. And the last El Niño winter, 2023-24, was forecast to be mild, and winter products sold late.
Dates already in the diary
As announced by 9 October 2026
DateEvent
Tue 3 Nov 2026The US votes for its Congress
Sun 8 Nov 2026Diwali. The exchanges have listed the one-hour Muhurat session for that evening
Tue 10 Nov 2026Markets shut
Around 1 Dec 2026The weather office usually publishes its winter outlook
2 to 4 Dec 2026RBI meets, its first decision after October's rate rise
Mon 1 Feb 2027Union Budget, by the practice of recent years. Date not announced
Feb and Mar 2027State elections due in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. Schedule not announced
This week's market note explains why the US vote matters for oil and the rupee.
What it adds up to for an Indian investor

Winter is not a reason to buy shares, and not a reason to wait. The Nifty 50 fell in four of the last five winters, and in three of those four it rose over the next eight months. In most of those years, someone who paused a SIP for the winter skipped the lower prices and bought again at higher ones. If you hold a single-sector fund, check the tables above before assuming its season will show in its price. And money for a wedding, a fee or a trip due this winter should not be in shares in the first place.

Questions readers ask

Does the Indian stock market go up in winter?

Not reliably. The Nifty 50 fell from November to February in four of the last five winters, and the Sensex in 11 of the last 20.

Which sectors do well in winter in India?

No NSE sector index rose in all of the last five winters. Nifty CPSE, the government-owned companies, rose in four; PSU Bank, Metal and Energy in three.

Why does the Nifty often fall in January?

The Nifty 50 fell in each January from 2022 to 2026, and foreign portfolio investors were net sellers in all five, by ₹25,744 crore to ₹78,027 crore. The Budget follows on 1 February.

Do jewellery shares rise in the wedding season?

More often before it. The typical NSE-listed jeweller's share rose between July and October in four of the last five years and fell in four of the five winters.

Should I stop my SIP in winter?

The record gives no reason to. Three of the last four losing winters were followed by gains over the next eight months. This is general information, not personal advice.

How we worked, and our sources

  • Indian indices: NSE daily index closing files, 1 June 2021 to 9 October 2026. Sensex: BSE's index archive.
  • Foreign investors: NSDL, monthly FPI net investment in equity.
  • Jewellery and gold: NSE closing prices from Yahoo Finance, adjusted for share splits. Five-year record: Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, PC Jeweller, Thangamayil, Rajesh Exports, Goldiam International, TBZ and Vaibhav Global; for 2026 also Senco Gold, PN Gadgil, Sky Gold, Motisons and BlueStone. Gold: an NSE-listed gold exchange-traded fund.
  • Company and industry facts: company results and statements; FADA, CAIT, RBI, the India Meteorological Department, the Commission for Air Quality Management and the Union Budget documents; reports by Reuters, PTI and Business Standard.
  • Research: the seven studies in the table above.
  • Limits: returns are index price changes and leave out dividends. Five winters is a small sample. The figures describe the past; they are not a forecast or a recommendation to buy or sell any share, sector or fund.

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A note from the founder
Winter is when we spend. It is rarely when markets pay.
Every November the house fills up: Diwali, a wedding in the family, travel, the fees due in January. It is also when most people look at their investments and ask whether to wait for the Budget before putting in more.
In shortIn four of the last five winters the Nifty 50 fell between November and February, and in three of those four it rose over the eight months that followed. Since 2006, January and February are the only two months in which the Sensex has fallen on average.
If this winter's spending and this winter's investing are pulling in different directions, bring both to me and we will set them side by side.
Nishith Gandhi
Founder, GVNG Financial, Ahmedabad
25+ years serving families